A Risk Prediction Tool for Invasive Melanoma

Can a risk prediction tool for invasive melanoma be developed with better performance and less bias compared to existing prediction tools?In this cohort study of 41 919 participants with a 10-year follow-up, a new risk prediction tool for invasive melanoma was developed and, using 16 predictors, delivered improved prediction performances over previous tools. The new tool would identify 76% of future melanoma cases within 10 years by targeting individuals in the top 40% of predicted risk.This prediction tool offers the potential for targeting individuals at higher risk of melanoma for systematic early detection activities.

Corresponding Author: David C. Whiteman, MBBS, PhD, Cancer Control Group, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Rd, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia (david.whiteman@qimrberghofer.edu.au).

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